Andy Sundberg of American Citizens Abroad, left, and Jerry Hagstrom, political commentator, right, with Albert Gallatin on the wall between them, at the Swiss Press Club in Geneva. Gallatin, from a Swiss family, was appointed US Treasury Secretary by President Thomas Jefferson in 1801. He fought for greater accountability of the Treasury to Congress.

Geneva, Switzerland (GenevaLunch) -  Observers and voters outside the United States are missing a crucial part of the US presidential election process despite heavy media coverage: they are not exposed to the political television ads that sway Americans. Jerry Hagstrom, a noted commentator on US politics, told a group in Geneva this week that the ads “show how dangerous it is in American politics to say anything - between the media and Google, anything you’ve ever said can be found” and come back to haunt.

He played several advertisements for the Swiss Press Club and guests of the US Mission in Geneva, one showing how socially conservative Mitt Romney was pushed out of the Republican race after ads made it clear that he had earlier been a social liberal, supporting, for example, gay rights.

A Mike Huckabee ad with Chuck Norris made “Chuckabee” popular, with over two million hits on YouTube; it showed the conservative credentials of the former governor of Arizona, said Hagstrom, but it may have detracted from his credibility. “My view, after looking at all these ads, was that John McCain was the logical candidate.”

Logical because, says Hagstrom, “Americans take their vote very seriously” and it comes down to “Who can they trust.” The war in Iraq was the issue at the start of the race he notes, but this has virtually disappeared and the financial crisis has taken over. Polls indicate that a very high percentage of people think whoever wins will have to compromise so the race is not about “a choice between two ideals, but between two candidates” and voters are looking to see who will be most effective at compromising.” Americans are watching the ads to see who is ready to lead, Hagstrom argues, and “more and more people think Obama is the candidate to trust on the economy.”

Hagstrom, believes that despite the current lead held by Obama, the key to victory for him will be to get big votes from women and African-Americans, and reduce the number of white men who vote Republican. The last time a majority of white men voted Democrat was 1964, when Barry Goldwater ran against Lyndon Johnson. Women tend to favour Obama, but Palin’s appeal as a new generation female politician should not be underestimated. To women who grew up under the law that gave girls in school equal sports time and funding, Palin’s answer, when asked what she does to unwind, hit home: she likes to go to the gym and work out.

Jerry Hagstrom at the Swiss Press Club, Geneva

The youth vote remains a large question mark. Since the voting age was put down from 21 to 18 years of age in 1971 this group has not turned out to vote in numbers, but in 2008 they showed up for the first time for caucuses and primaries, says Hagstrom.

Race has become less of an issue in the past two weeks, but he points out that polls for other elections generally show people saying race is less of an issue than it appears to be once the votes are counted. The implication is that about 3% of the population does not want to admit to pollsters that colour is a factor for them.

Obama’s lead in the polls means that if the election were held today, he would likely win, Hagstrom says, but not only can polls get it wrong, nearly four weeks is “an eternity in an election. I’ve learned that the reason we have elections is to decide these things.”

In the end, “the election will come down to who gets people out to vote.”

Ed. note: Hagstrom has been a contributing editor of National Journal, a Washington weekly on government and national politics, since 1976.  He is the co-author with Neal Pierce of The Book of America: Inside Fifty States Today and the author of Beyond Reagan: The New Landscape of American Politics. He has also been a frequent contributor to BBC and various US national media.

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