Consumers see inflation as stronger and expect it to increase in next 12 months
BERN, SWITZERLAND – Swiss consumer confidence is rising, with the quarterly index of Seco, the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs showing a marked increase in two key areas. The survey carried out at the end of April shows that “consumer expectations regarding the development of the overall economic situation reached -2 points in April (compared with -29 in January). There was also an improvement in the expectations concerning unemployment (+49 in April com-pared with +71 in January),” according to a statement from Seco.
The two areas that remain virtually unchanged, however, are assessments of the future development of consumers’ personal financial situations (+0 in April compared with +1 point in January) and “the assessment of their future savings opportunities (+20 compared with +22 points in January)”.
A number of changes are taking place in the way the survey is carried out, starting with a change in the research institute doing the research, but it will also cover an additional two to three weeks and will include 1,200 rather than 1,100 households. A key change is that Italian speakers from Ticino are now being inclluded; in the past the surveys were run only in French- and German-speaking Switzerland.
BERN, SWITZERLAND – Swiss consumer confidence, assessed every three months in a Seco (economics ministry) survey, rose slightly in January, in two of four key areas. Households were slightly more optimistic about general economic development over the next 12 months. Their assessment of their’ personal financial situations inched up.
Seco notes that “by contrast, unemployment expectations stagnated and the appreciations of future savings opportunities only slightly improved.”
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BERN, SWITZERLAND – The Swiss Secretariat for the Economy, Seco, has revised downward its GDP growth projections for 2012, from 0.9 percent forecast in September to 0.5 percent, following a trend set by major banks’ and others’ research departments. A major impact will be a significant rise in unemployment, Seco notes.
The jobless rate is expected to peak at 3.9 percent at the end of 2012, then slip back down, with annual rates of 3.1 percent in 2011 (currently 3 percent), 3.6 percent in 2012 and 3.7 percent in 2013.
Bern has qualified the economy’s situation as experiencing “a clear slowdown”, but notes that nothing indicates “a bottoming-out similar to what was seen at the end of 2008″, with the global impact of the Lehman Brothers crash, nor is a rapid degradation expected. The accumulated negative impact of the strong Swiss franc, now at CHF1.23 to the euro, is putting the brakes on investment and exports.
The good news is that the slowdown is expected to be temporary, assuming the eurozone debt crisis does not worsen, and in 2013 Swiss GDP growth is forecast to rise again, to 1.9 percent.
Sovereign debt crises in a number of countries, notably in the eurozone, and flagging consumer confidence as well as corporate investment confidence are key factors behind the expected slowdown. Seco’s Group of Experts who are consulted for the official government quarterly forecasts agree that an “uncontrollable contamination” from the eurozone can be avoided, with financial markets recovering bit by bit throughout 2012.
Seco points to the slight improved situation outside the eurozone, with the US’s “vacillating” situation stabilizing somewhat in the second half of 2011, Japan gradually improving and emerging economies recovering from the initial impact of the rest of the world’s economic woes.
Bern, Switzerland (GenevaLunch) - Swiss consumers are feeling far more optimistic about the economy than they were in January, the latest quarterly consumer confidence survey shows. The surveys are done every three months by the federal finance department. The April survey shows a 14 point increase in confidence, compared to a 7 point drop in January. Consumers expect to see “a much lower increase in unemployment as well as a stronger positive development of the economy,” the results, published Tuesday 11 May, show.
Gleeful consumers, money goes further
Neuchatel and Bern, Switzerland (GenevaLunch) – Inflation in October was 0.6 percent above September’s rate, according to figures released Thursday, 5 November, by Swiss Statistics. The Swiss inflation index stands at 103.7 (100=2005). This is still 0.8 percent below the rate in October 2008.
The quarterly consumer confidence survey was more positive than the last one released in July, according to the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (Seco). The survey queries 1,100 households around the country to obtain an idea of current feelings about the economy, from a consumer’s point of view. The survey includes questions about the household budget, about the capacity to save in the next 12 months, and feelings about unemployment.
Ben Bernanke, chairman of the US central bank the Federal Reserve, said 15 September that the recession in the US was probably technically over, but that unemployment would continue to undermine any recovery. A recession is officially no or negative economic growth for two consecutive quarters. Latest data about US employment indicates that the unemployment rate is at its highest since 1983, at 9.7 percent. US consumer confidence was up significantly, according to a survey published 15 September by Investor’s Business Daily/Technometrica market Intelligence. BBC, Reuters
