Switzerland: IMF checks economic winds in 2011
Bern, Switzerland (GenevaLunch) - The IMF (International Monetary Fund) in its annual country report on Switzerland says the economy is broad-based in the aftermath of the global economic crisis. It is forecasting 2.1 percent growth for 2011 and 1.8 percent in 2012, when it expects exports to fall.
“Domestic demand is benefiting from low interest rates, increased employment and continuing immigration. In spite of the strength of the Swiss franc, exports have grown due to increased global demand.” Geopolitical tensions could have a negative impact and are the biggest risk factor, agreed the IMF team, who visited Switzerland from 18 to 28 March. Tensions in the euro zone could also spark difficulties.
The SNB (Swiss National Bank) could consider tightening monetary policy, the IMF group says, with rebuilding its capital a priority. The central bank’s capital was drained during the crisis, as were those of many governments. Future dividends to the cantons and the Confederation should be made subject to the ability of the SNB to replenish its capital.
The heaviest criticism was reserved for the banking regulatory system, which needs further work, according to the IMF. The Federal Department of Finance will create a working group to follow up one issue: the mandates of the SNB and Finma, the financial supervisory body, should be clarified, according to the IMF.
Additional capital requirements provided for in the Federal Council’s “too big to fail” consultation draft will be instrumental in limiting the risks posed by systemically important banks. Consequently, the IMF experts warn against allowing overly generous “rebate” possibilities. Switzerland’s new capital requirements are among the most stringent in the world, going well beyond bank capital requirements that are part of the new, global BIS (Bank for International Settlements) Basel agreement.
In the mortgage market, the IMF sees a certain degree of easing in financial institutions’ lending standards, says Bern. “The interest-rate sensitivity of banks’ balance sheets has increased due to the tendency towards fixed-rate mortgages with long maturities” and the IMF is in favour of “implementing more conservative affordability standards”, which could be bad news for new home owner wannabes.
The IMF has given its support to several ongoing improvements:
- “The neutral fiscal position to be expected over the next few years is considered appropriate” says Bern’s statement on the IMF visit
- the measures to restructure disability insurance must continue
- the IMF welcomes the ongoing efforts to strengthen financial planning and statistics.
Switzerland: still afloat, not quite plain sailing
Lausanne, Switzerland (GenevaLunch) – Switzerland’s solid base will stand it in relatively good stead in coming months, helping it resist the global economic crisis.
The country can expect only “soft growth” in the next few years, however, according to the World Competitiveness Report published 20 May by business school IMD in Lausanne (Ed. note: GL story on overall report).
The country held its fourth place slot in the rankings and did relatively well, landing in sixth place in the report’s new “Stress test for competitiveness,” rankings, based on future-oriented analyses. “Compared with many other countries, the fundamental economic, political and financial pillars of Switzerland show a remarkable stability.
