Bern, Switzerland (GenevaLunch) - Swiss consumers are feeling far more optimistic about the economy than they were in January, the latest quarterly consumer confidence survey shows. The surveys are done every three months by the federal finance department. The April survey shows a 14 point increase in confidence, compared to a 7 point drop in January. Consumers expect to see “a much lower increase in unemployment as well as a stronger positive development of the economy,” the results, published Tuesday 11 May, show.
Adecco net profits more than doubled
Zurich, Switzerland (GenevaLunch) – Better job conditions worldwide have helped Swiss staffing giant Adecco to net $73.5 million, (€57 million), in the first quarter of 2010. The net is more than double the €23m the company earned during the same period in 2009.
Job market growth in France and the United States, cost-cutting, restructuring efforts, and acquisitions in the US and the UK helped the increase.
Latest fair to feel fallout from economic crisis but Geneva private jet fair numbers likely to be up
Geneva, Switzerland (GenevaLunch) – The Salon du Livre, Geneva’s annual bookfair at Palexpo, closed Sunday with numbers down from 2009: 98,000 while a year earlier the figure was 105,000. The fair is the latest to see lower numbers this year, as the economy gently recovers from the economic crisis. The Visions du Réel film festival in Nyon in mid-April also saw its numbers drop. TSR reports that booksellers were happy, however, with lower numbers overall but more people spending money while at the fair.
Consumers are still willing to spend their time dreaming and planning about vehicles, however: the Geneva Motor Show numbers held steady in March and Europe’s largest private jet fair, that runs from 4-6 May in Geneva, is expecting higher attendance than in 2009, some 12,000 people. Lake Geneva region hotels are heavily booked for the event.
Links to other sites (Fre): Tribune de Geneve, TSR and history of private jet fairs in Geneva
The announcement of a senior European official on 29 April, who said the EU is near an emergency rescue plan for Greece’s economy has stirred reactions all over the world.
Time magazine sees the effort as being “too late,” the Toronto Star says the EU “fumbled,” while the Financial Times talks about critics “lining up to rap” German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, over the crisis.
China has ended the first quarter of 2010 with a growth rate of 12 percent, higher than expected. Inflation, up 2.2 percent, was lower than expected but data published Thursday 15 April show that housing prices rose by 11.7 percent in the past 12 months. The strong economic growth has observers saying China could well overtake Japan in 2010 as the world’s second largest economy. Speculation is rife in Western business media about the impact, ranging from fears of the economy overheating and the possibility of the yuan being uncoupled from the dollar to when the government is likely to raise interest rates, which have just gone up in several neighbouring countries.
Links to other sites: Bloomberg, Financial Times, Xinhua
Not-so gloomy forecast after all
Bern, Switzerland (GenevaLunch) – The Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (Seco) is forecasting higher GDP (gross domestic product) growth and lower unemployment for 2010, even though the economy is still weak and might dip at some point during the year.
The new forecast sees GDP growth of 1.4 percent, double the forecast made in December 2009. Seco has also adjusted its unemployment forecast to 4.3 percent, down from instead of 4.9 percent.
Seco also counsels that other countries’ national and private debt could weigh unfavorably against the Swiss economy. “Countries with above-average growth could be facing appreciation of their currencies,” says the report. The report concludes that “another strong appreciation of the Swiss Franc towards the Euro could have a harmful effect on exports.”
Greek airspace and airports as well as ferries are closed Thursday 11 March, with Greek workers from the country’s two largest unions calling a third general strike in the past month, the second in just a week. The unions are fighting the country’s austerity measures, designed to cut the public debt, which is four times higher than that allowed by the European Union.
Outsiders are divided over whether or not the Chinese economy is experiencing a bubble, particularly in specific areas like housing, but the country’s parliament meets and focuses on economic recovery. Growth is targeted at 8 percent and inflation at 3 percent. Premier Wen Jiabao insisted in the opening session that housing prices in cities must be curbed and he told the National People’s Congress that the government is increasing low income housing expenditure by 14.7 percent in 2010.
Links to other sites: Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, Xinhua
© Chappatte, distributed by Globe Cartoon. More cartoons on Chappatte’s web site. Geneva-based Patrick Chappatte works for the International Herald Tribune, for Geneva newspaper Le Temps, and for NZZ am Sonntag. All cartoons reproduced with permission.
Housing prices rose in Great Britain in January 2010 for the first time in 10 months, but early reports for February show some slippage, down 1.4 percent over January. Prices are nevertheless 9.2 percent higher than in February 2009. The housing price news is accompanied revised figures published 25 February by the government that show the UK grew by 0.3 percent in the last three months of 2009, slightly more than earlier reports showed.
Links to other sites: BBC, Market Watch
Monday 15 February is popularly known as Presidents Day in the US, with many businesses and government offices shut. The holiday is officially called Washington’s Birthday, to celebrate the first president of the US, but when it was moved from 22 February to the third Monday in the month, going into effect in 1971, President Richard Nixon called it Presidents Day, to honour all US presidents. The label stuck, albeit informally.
China has begun its week-long celebration of the Chinese New Year, with its stock markets and businesses closed to celebrate the arrival of the Year of the Tiger.
The Year of the Tiger looks likely to be the year China slips into second place as a world economic power. Japan published figures Monday that show it remains the world’s second largest economy, with GDP (gross domestic product) of $5.085 trillion. The figure for China is $4.909t. China is expected to overtake Japan during 2010 but it will need another 20 or more years to catch up with the US, whose economy is three times the size of China’s, many analysts suggest.
Links to other sites: Vancouver Sun, US Mission in Germany, Xinhua
Japan’s finance minister, Hiroshisa Fujii, has resigned due to ill health and he will be replaced by Naoto Kan, a founder of the ruling Democratic Party, which won the country’s leadership in September 2009 after 50 years of conservative rule. Fujii was widely respected for his conservative approach and the change comes at a time when Japan’s economy has been particularly fragile and fears of a recession are still strong.
Swiss army knives and more, still selling
Geneva, Switzerland (GenevaLunch) - The canton of Geneva moved out of its recession and into growth by the second quarter of 2009, six months ahead of the rest of Switzerland, and it now looks set to have a GDP (gross domestic product) of CHF45 million, growth of 0.5-1 percent in 2010, predicts the BCGE (Banque Cantonale de Geneve). The growth is closely linked to Geneva’s strong ties with Asian trading partners, but retail businesses have remained strong throughout the recession, and consumers are expected to lead the way with 3.5 percent growth in this area, followed by services (health, education, government and semi-public business), which account for 20 percent of cantonal GDP.
Banks are expected to show zero growth and therefore have a neutral impact on the canton’s GDP growth figures next year.
Links to other sites: BCGE, Tribune de Geneve
India’s economy outperformed expectations in the third quarter of 2009, with 7.9 percent growth, its strongest in six quarters. The Bank of India has already begun to shift away from measures to boost the economy as its concern over inflation grows. The $1.2 trillion economy is expected to have year-end (31 March 2010) growth of 7 percent. India is one of the leaders in the rebound of its region’s economies as the “Asia Pacific region leads the world out of the worst recession since the 1930s”, writes Bloomberg.
Links to other sites: Bloomberg, The Economic Times, India
We're all connected: Swiss economic health depends on the world, says SNB
Zurich, Switzerland (GenevaLUnch) - The Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) is guardedly more optimistic than in June about the outlook for the Swiss economy, it said Thursday afternoon 17 September in its quarterly report, but monetary policy will remain loose in order to stimulate the economy. The central bank revised its GDP (gross domestic product) forecast, saying it expects this to fall by between 1.5 and 2 percent, less steeply than forecast in June (2.5 to 3 percent). The key interest rate range remains unchanged at 0.0-0.75, “still aiming to keep the Libor within the lower end of this range, that is, at approximately 0.25%.” The Libor serves as an indicator of shifts in bank lending rates.
The SNB says it will continue to intervene in currency markets to keep the Swiss franc competitive internationally.
China’s industrial output grew by 12 percent in August, a 12-month high and better than forecast by the government, which was looking for 10 percent growth. Foreign trade – exports and imports combined – were $91.7 billion, down 20.6 percent compared to August 2008 but a 2.3 percent increase from July.
Other key economic data published by the government’s statistics office Friday included:
- urban fixed asset investment is up 33 percent for the first eight months of the year
- new loans in yuan in rose from Yuan36 billion in July to Yuan410b in August
- the consumer price index fell by 1.2 percent and the producer price index fell by 7.9 percent, both as compared to a year earlier, but the rate of decline is slowing.
Swiss exports decline - Photo Stefan Sueess/SECO
Bern, Switzerland (GenevaLunch) - The Swiss economy is still in a recession. GDP (gross domestic product) declined 0.3% in comparison to Q1, and 2% compared to 2008, new figures from the Secretariat for Economic Affairs (Seco) show. The slide is less than many economists were expecting.
Following two quarters of unusually sharp falls, the downward trend in exports of goods fell by 2%. However, value-added in the construction sector increased 1.1%.
Swiss GDP has been shrinking for the past four quarters which confirms the recession. According to economists, a true economic recession can only be confirmed if GDP growth is negative for a period of two or more consecutive quarters.
Related: Le Temps, Fre
Basel, Switzerland (GenevaLunch) – Már Guðmundsson Thursday 20 August became the new governor of Iceland’s central bank, post he takes up after five years in Basel as deputy head of the monetary and economic department of the Bank for International Settlements. Iceland’s economy “hit the wall” according to Forbes in February 2009, with high unemployment and riots in the streets; getting the economy back on its feet is widely seen by international economic observers as a daunting challenge.
Related: Ice News, 20 August 2009
Japan has reported modest signs of growth that have technically pulled it out of recession, with a 0.9 percent increase in GDP in the second quarter of 2009, for an annual rate of 3.7 percent. Stronger exports and substantial government spending to stimulate the economy were credited with the boost, which comes after a 3.1 percent drop in GDP in the first quarter. Japan officially entered recession in 2008.
Zurich, Switzerland (GenevaLunch) – Switzerland’s famed yellow postal buses are not only surviving but thriving during the economic crisis, the fleet’s director, Daniel Landolf, told newspaper Sonntag in an interview published Sunday 9 August. The buses, which reach many areas not served by rail, have been increasingly popular as the Swiss travel more at home during the downturn, and the company expects to hire 280 new staff by 2012. Landolf is quoted as saying that the company, a subsidiary of the Switzerland’s La Poste, expects to see higher profits than in 2008, when it posted a CHF27 million profit.
Japan’s consumer prices were down by a record 1.7 percent in June compared to a year ago, for the fourth straight month that prices declined. Rising unemployment and falling wages are crimping demand, sending Japan’s economy spiraling into deflation for the second time in less than 10 years. Even when declining energy prices are excluded from the index, prices are broadly lower as the country’s retailers compete with each other on price to sell to the Japanese consumer. The unemployment rate increased to 5.4 percent in June, a six-year high. Bloomberg, Reuters
The number of families that cannot afford to claim and bury or cremate their own people is growing, the Los Angeles county in California says. The number of people whose cremation was paid for by taxpayers rose 36 percent in 2008, over 2007, from 525 to 712. Los Angeles Times
The Chinese economy grew by 7.9 percent in the first half of 2009, showing a recovery after slipping to 6.1 percent for the first quarter. The government says it now expects to be on target and finish the year with growth of around 8 percent. The country’s GDP (gross domestic product) reached US$2.06 trillion. Financial Times, Reuters, Xinhua
Swiss households spend more money
Neuchatel, Switzerland (GenevaLunch) – The statistics are in: Swiss households are spending and making more money than before or at least they were in 2007, most recent year for which data is available.
According to the Swiss Federal Statistical Office (OFS), a typical Swiss household spent CHF5,430 a month in 2007, an increase of CHF240 compared to 2006. The largest increase occurred in housing and housing-related expenses, vacation and travel.
Switzerland: still afloat, not quite plain sailing
Lausanne, Switzerland (GenevaLunch) – Switzerland’s solid base will stand it in relatively good stead in coming months, helping it resist the global economic crisis.
The country can expect only “soft growth” in the next few years, however, according to the World Competitiveness Report published 20 May by business school IMD in Lausanne (Ed. note: GL story on overall report).
The country held its fourth place slot in the rankings and did relatively well, landing in sixth place in the report’s new “Stress test for competitiveness,” rankings, based on future-oriented analyses. “Compared with many other countries, the fundamental economic, political and financial pillars of Switzerland show a remarkable stability.
Lithuania’s government says the economy contracted by 12 percent in the first quarter of 2009, the largest decline since the government began keeping records in 1995. BBC
US military commanders plan to cut off the Taliban’s economic source, their multi-million dollar opium business in Afghanistan, by sending 20,000 Marines to the southern part of the country where the Taliban have poppy fields. The new effort to end the seven-year war in Afghanistan will double the number of troops already deployed. International Herald Tribune
Appenzell, Switzerland (GenevaLunch) – Forget about a swine flu pandemic and the economy’s freefall (now ended, according to US President Barack Obama’s economic advisor Lawrence Summers): the world wants to know whether or not it can hike nude in canton Appenzell Inner Rhodes, which last made world headines when it gave women the vote in 1990. Sadly, for those of you who itch to walk clothes-free in the mountains, the answer is no. The good people of Appenzell, who vote publicly in outdoor assemblies, raised their hands in favour of a ban. Nude hikers have visited the area in small but increasing numbers, notably from nearby Germany.
Pforzheim, Germany, also known as the Golden City because of its history of jewelry production, has seen the highest increases in unemployment in the nation over the past year. The jobless rate went from 7.1 percent to 9.8 percent, bringing the city above the national average of 8.6 percent. Declining exports from Germany, Europe’s largest economy, are expected to lead to more layoffs across the nation. International Herald Tribune
The Reserve Bank of Australia cut its benchmark rate Tuesday 7 April to its lowest level in nearly 50 years. The central bank’s governor, Glenn Stevens, said that although there were signs of continued weakness in the global economy, considerable injections of fiscal spending “should help contain the downturn” over the rest of the year. Australia & New Zealand Banking Corp. representatives warned that unemployment could exceed 8 percent by 2010. International Herald Tribune, Sydney Morning Herald
