Source: Swiss customs office (click on image to view larger)
Bern, Switzerland (GenevaLunch) – Several economic indicators published by the Swiss federal government Tuesday 21 September show an economy still in the doldrums, but with the outlook slightly more optimistic than in August 2009. Exports are down and imports are down by an even larger percentage, the economy is stabilizing but will remain “sluggish” in 2010 and unemployment is high. The good news: while the picture is still gloomy, it’s getting a little brighter.
GDP growth positive, if only slightly, in 2010
The government’s economic advisory “Expert Group” released its latest quarterly projections, which include a “weaker decline” of GDP (gross domestic product), from -2.7 percent expected in June to -1.7 percent forecast now. The group now expects positive GDP growth in 2010 of 0.4 percent rather than the -0.4 percent projected earlier. Private consumption and building investment are holding relatively steady, which is helping Switzerland to have a recession less dramatic than in many countries, although 2009 will go down as the worst year since 1975 for GDP decline.
China’s industrial output grew by 12 percent in August, a 12-month high and better than forecast by the government, which was looking for 10 percent growth. Foreign trade – exports and imports combined – were $91.7 billion, down 20.6 percent compared to August 2008 but a 2.3 percent increase from July.
Other key economic data published by the government’s statistics office Friday included:
- urban fixed asset investment is up 33 percent for the first eight months of the year
- new loans in yuan in rose from Yuan36 billion in July to Yuan410b in August
- the consumer price index fell by 1.2 percent and the producer price index fell by 7.9 percent, both as compared to a year earlier, but the rate of decline is slowing.
Geneva, Switzerland (GenevaLunch) – World trade rebounded sharply in the second quarter, according to World Trade Organization (WTO) figures just released. World exports (which are also world imports) increased by 7.7 percent in the second quarter of 2009, compared with the first quarter, and reached $2.88 trillion in the second quarter, up 6.6 percent overall.
The answer to the question of who is the world’s leading exporter was announced 8 September by the German Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). China’s export figures for July are $105,420 billion, an increase of 10.4 percent over June’s figures. Germany announced that exports were € 70.5 billion, or $102,155b. This is an unadjusted increase of 6.6 percent from June 2009. Both countries were neck-and-neck in June.
Quarterly world merchandise export developments, 2005-09 (2005Q1=100, in current US dollars), WTO
All of the WTO reporting regions show a rebound in the first quarter.
Geneva, Switzerland (GenevaLunch) – China pulled slightly ahead of Germany as the world’s leading exporter by value in the first six months of 2009, WTO (World Trade Organization) figures show. China’s exports were worth $521.7 billion whereas Germany exported $521.6b worth of goods, the Financial Times reports 25 August.
Both countries’ exports were seriously dented by the economic downturn that followed the financial crisis in late 2008, but both have recovered strongly. Germany’s exports surged seven percent in June compared to May, the latest data available, but are still 22.3 percent lower than the previous year.
The numbers are gathered monthly for internal purposes, since the WTO does not publish individual country forecasts and generally releases trade figures at the end of the year, an economist at the WTO told GenevaLunch. “But this year, because of the economic crisis, there has been a lot of interest in the first half of the year.”
Bern, Switzerland (GenevaLunch) – Switzerland’s foreign trade in July remained in the doldrums after a sharp drop in the first half of the year. Imports were down 14 percent in real terms, compared to last year, and a little lower than in June 2009. Exports too were lower than in 2008 by 15.1 percent, an improvement on June’s 22.3 percent drop year-on-year drop. Overall the trade balance was slightly positive in July at CHF 2.35 billion, an increase of 0.1 percent over July 2008. The figures were released by the Swiss Federal Customs Administration (SFCA).
Japan has reported modest signs of growth that have technically pulled it out of recession, with a 0.9 percent increase in GDP in the second quarter of 2009, for an annual rate of 3.7 percent. Stronger exports and substantial government spending to stimulate the economy were credited with the boost, which comes after a 3.1 percent drop in GDP in the first quarter. Japan officially entered recession in 2008.
Two days of talks billed as a “strategic and economic dialogue” between China and the US concluded Tuesday 28 July in Washington DC, with nothing concrete but with broad agreement on ways to combat the world recession and on climate change. The two say they are now closer on a variety of issues, among them US strategic concerns on Iranian and North Korean nuclear ambitions. On the economic front, the Chinese government worries about the value of its massive holdings of US treasury debt, given huge US budget deficits and the resulting danger of inflation, and very low US savings. The US wants China to increase domestic spending to reduce its reliance on the export market, and to show flexibility on its exchange rate. Both remain committed to open trade and say they vowed to resist protectionism. US President Obama has called for a concerted effort to reduce carbon emissions, but developing economies like China hesitate because they fear this will cramp their growth. BBC, CNN, Le Temps (Fre), NZZ (Ger)
Bern, Switzerland (GenevaLunch) – Swiss exports will be given the same treatment as EU member countries’ goods when they enter the European Union, the government announced 24 June. The agreement goes into effect 1 July 2009.
Bern, Switzerland (GenevaLunch) – The Swiss government said Tuesday 23 June in announcing trade figures for May that there is “not a glimmer of hope on the horizon” with both exports and imports down by one-fifth. Seven out of 10 export businesses showed drops of 22 to 39 percent. Imports of energy, raw materials and semi-finished products all fell by one-third, reflecting the decline in orders. The May figures confirm the downward trend for the first four months of the year.
The world’s economy is set to shrink 2.9 percent this year, and the recovery, when it comes, will be less marked than hoped for, states the World Bank’s Global Development Finance 2009: Charting a Global Recovery, which is published today, 22 June. The forecast shows the economy slowing more than the World Bank predicted in March, when it said 1.7 percent. Poor countries especially are affected. With the economic downturn in richer countries, poorer ones depend more than ever on exports, remittances and foreign direct investment. The funding gap for these countries in 2009 is expected to be between $350 billion and $635b. The bank also revised downwards its predictions for growth in the US to a 3 percent contraction in 2009, while Japan’s economy will shrink 6.8 percent. Bloomberg, World Bank
Zurich, Switzerland (GenevaLunch) – The outlook for the Swiss economy is gloomier than initially believed, says economiesuisse in its latest forecast, published Monday 14 June, which predicts a fall of 2.9 percent in GDP (gross domestic product) for 2009 and another drop of 0.8 percent in 2010. It expects prices to remain stable but internal consumption to be weak, with unemployment growing to 4 percent in 2009 and 5.3 percent in 2010.
Bern, Switzerland (GenevaLunch) – Switzerland’s foreign trade, both exports and imports, in February continued the slump that began in December 2008. The trade balance fell to half the figure of a year ago, down to a positive balance of CHF731 million.
All industries were hit by the slump, with imports and exports down by double-digit numbers: 17.3 percent and 13.7 percent respectively. Even the watch industry, which has withstood slumps seen earlier in other industries, was hit hard by a 22.4 percent fall in exports.
Bern, Switzerland (GenevaLunch) - The Swiss trade balance in January was positive, CHF2 billion, but it continued its “downward spiral,” the federal government in Bern announced Thursday 19 February. Trade with the European Union in particular suffered, with flat trade, both imports and exports.
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Bern, Switzerland (GenevaLunch) – At first glance Switzerland’s trade figures for 2008 are startling: a record positive trade balance of CHF20 million, with exports up 4.6% for the year and imports up 1.8%. Exports for the first time were more than CHF200 billion.
Bern, Switzerland (GenevaLunch) – The Swiss trade balance remains in the black at CHF2.2 billion but November showed a significant falling off of both imports and exports, notably in trade with the European Union.
