Panel at FT Lausanne commodities conference predicts continuing high oil prices
LAUSANNE, SWITZERLAND – The United States is where the world’s next economic and industrial boom may occur, says Daniel Jaeggi, co-founder of Geneva-based energy trading firm Mercuria.
Jaeggi was speaking at a two-day commodities conference in Lausanne 24 April. His privately held firm trades approximately one million barrels of crude oil a day. Jaeggi encouraged investors to look at the US for the start of a new “industrial renaissance” driven by factors including the cheapest energy resources, such as oil, gas and coal, cheap and flexible labour, and a “positive population dynamic, which certainly cannot be said for Europe”.
“We have had the BRIC story since 2001, and by now you would’ve had to have been asleep for the past decade not to know what BRIC stands for”, he told GenevaLunch, referring to rapidly developing economies Brazil, Russia, India and China. “Some tectonic plates are shifting and certain things are changing. The story of the West is that the industrial manufacturing base disappearing from the West has been going on since the 1970s. You can now ask yourself seriously if we are not at the dawn of something very significant.”
Europe’s outlook negative, oil prices to remain high, say traders
A panel of energy trading executives generally agreed on a negative economic forecast for Europe at the Financial Times conference. The panel: Glencore chief of oil Alex Beard, Pierre Barbé, president at Total Oil Trading and Törbjörn Törnqvist, chairman of Gunvor.
Top oil traders handed consumers gloomy news, telling the conference that three-digit prices for oil are here to stay. The price of Brent oil, the benchmark crude, by April had remained above $100 a barrel for a record 200 consecutive days. And oil traders don’t see it slipping, thanks to growing demand and continuing tight supplies.
Ten years ago the price of Brent was $20 a barrel.
The US Department of Energy, in a 2011 report called “What drives the price of crude oil” includes the activities of the financial markets in its seven key factors.
Lake steamer "Lausanne" at the Chateau de Chillon during special runs on Lake Geneva last weekend (photo ©2012 Jean Vernet / CGN)
GENEVA, SWITZERLAND – The Swiss weather map 27 March is a dream, as long as you’re not a farmer hoping for some rain for thirsty crops: nothing but sunshine ahead. Average precipitation in February was 25mm (Meteo Swiss map) in most of French-speaking Switzerland.
March figures are not yet out it appears likely they will be even lower for many areas. Temperatures are starting to rise above 20C in some areas during the day, although by Sunday some cloud cover and slightly lower temperatures (2-14C in Geneva) are forecast.
The exceptionally warm weather has prompted the CGN boat company to offer special runs on Lake Geneva for the past three weekends, ahead of the summer season schedule that starts 6 April, Easter weekend.
Last weekend 600 people took the “Lausanne” steamer between Lausanne and the Chateau de Chillon, which passes in front of the Unesco World Heritage site vineyards in Lavaux. And another 1,200 took advantage of the Nyon-Yvoire shuttle runs.
Hiking trails and Lake Geneva have been busy with pleasure-seekers and bicycles are out in force.
Pollen is starting up; national weather service has daily forecasts
Also out in force, however, are pollen, notably from birch trees. The national weather service this week started offering an improved three-day pollen forecast by region. The service, which was introduced last year, this year takes into account pollen activity in neighbouring countries, which has allowed the service to be refined. Measures are being taken now to improve the service again next year, when the geographic accuracy will be taken from today’s 7km radius down to 2km.
Pollen level Thursday to Saturday this week: high for oak and birch.
Meteo Swiss’s detailed daily pollen reports are offered in French, German and Italian and indicate local pollen counts, but a European forecast site offers a wealth of information in English, some of which is in other languages.
Hazelnut, Basel, 3 January 2012 (photo: MeteoSwiss pollen forecasts)
BERN, SWITZERLAND – Massive amounts of snow cover the Jura and Alps, but on the Lake Geneva region plains the weather has been clement, and for hay fever sufferers that translates into the hazelnut trees budding. Where the air is dry, pollen is already being released.
The amounts are small but measurable near Geneva, MeteoSwiss’s pollen map shows, but by tomorrow in Ticino, with flowering already occurring Thursday 12 January, the rating will go up to “average”, as they have done in some very locally confined areas, such as Buchs in eastern Switzerland.
Flowering of troublesome pollen-bearing plants has been happening earlier since the 1990s, says the national weather service but traditionally this happens anywhere from December to March depending on the combination of a number of factors. Hazelnuts are now forecast to flower 24 January in Geneva and Lausanne, a full two weeks earlier than the average.
MeteoSwiss is now offering a daily pollen forecasting service, in French, German and Italian, with maps showing the daily situation for the main varieties that cause problems. A smart-phone application is free of charge.
More feet on Swiss soil by 2035: up to +20% in Vaud, Zurich
Bern, Switzerland (GenevaLunch) - Switzerland 29 March released its population growth forecasts for the next 25 years showing that while growth is expected everywhere, it will be most concentrated in the Lake Geneva region and around Zurich.
Cantons Vaud, Fribourg to grow by 20 percent in 25 years
The strongest growth, 20 percent, is expected in cantons Vaud and Fribourg, while in Jura, Neuchatel and Uri it will likely be only 2-3 percent. The high growth areas are expected to have “relatively favourable net migration and a sufficiently high birth rate to compensate for the increase in the rising number of deaths”, says Bern.
The figures are determined by comparing three hypotheses which, Bern takes pains to note, are done at the national level and which have certain statistical constraints as a result.
Some cantons, including Geneva, do their own projections, which may differ from the federal ones because different hypotheses are used.
Inflation in the UK rose to 3.7 percent in December, an 8-month high and well above the target of 2 percent set by the Bank of England. Inflation is expected to rise again in January because of a new year increase in VAT (value added tax), from 17.5 percent to 20 percent. The central bank had forecast a year-end rate of 3.2 percent but the rapidly rising price of oil, in particular, sent prices spiralling up. The initial reaction to the news came on currency markets, where the pound rose against the dollar to an eight-week high as investors gambled on when the central bank will intervene.
Links to other sites: Bloomberg/Business Week, Financial Times, Reuters, UK
SNB revises 2010 Swiss and euro region growth forecasts upwards
Inflation rise will be lower than earlier forecast
A place of one's own (here: Cologny, Geneva), mortgage market mostly unchanged
Ed. note: the dollar rose to CHF1.01 and the euro to CHF1.32 in late Thursday trading against the franc.
Update 16:55 Zurich, Switzerland (GenevaLunch) – The Swiss National Bank (SNB), like the federal government’s group of experts, has raised its forecast for the Swiss economy, saying Thursday 16 September that it expects 2.5 percent GDP growth for 2010, while noting that 2011 will be less rosy. At the same it revised downwards its inflation forecast for the next three years, and it has left interest rates unchanged.
It is leaving the target range for the three-month Libor unchanged at 0.00–0.75 percent and says it intends to keep the Libor within the lower part of the target range at around 0.25 percent.
The Swiss franc rose Wednesday on speculation the SNB would tighten its current expansionary monetary policy and raise interest rates.
SNB September 2010 inflation forecast, Switzerland
On the Swiss mortgage front the bank says “most banks report unchanged lending conditions and a further increase in demand. The growth in mortgage lending and real estate prices has decelerated marginally, compared to the situation at the end of 2009.” The household mortgage situation still requires close watching, it suggests.
Lake Geneva area and Swiss weather: daily forecasts now on GenevaLunch
Geneva / Lausanne, Switzerland (GenevaLunch.com) – GenevaLunch is doing more to keep you happy, and among our latest additions aretwo that will please many readers. Starting today we are providing weather forecasts from the Swiss national weather service, MeteoSwiss. You’ll find icons for Geneva and Zurich at the top of the home page. Select either one and you’ll land on the weather forecast page, where we will also frequently post current weather photos from the Lake Geneva region.
If you have weather photos you’d like to contribute, we’re happy to consider them: editor@genevalunch.com.
Crossword fans are already busy working on our new feature, crosswords created specially for GenevaLunch by Shirley Curran, a regular contributor to our winter ski reports and the person behind our book blog, Book my place. The crosswords appear on the blog. Shirley is an accomplished creator of general knowledge and cryptic crosswords for several UK publications, going under the pseudonym of Chalicea. You might want to start with this one, but don’t peek at the answers, of course, provided this week.
Our blogs are changing: two of them have new names to reflect their new focus. Geneva Living is where Laila Rodriguez, who is also a news reporter for GenevaLunch, shares her tips on life in the city. Now that she has four years in Geneva under her belt she decided it was time to change her blog’s name, formerly called New to Geneva? Me too! And Jared Bloch is focusing more on one of his real passions, anything and everything that has to do with wheels, so Man oh man is now called, not surprisingly, Wheels enthusiast.
We have new people lined up to contribute guest blogs on a regular basis, so you’ll get to know their voices on a variety of topics, and we’ll be opening up some of the other blogs to regular contributors.
And if you enjoy photography, you may have noticed our four GenevaLunch group flickr photos, which change frequently thanks to a group of 70 regular contributors.
You’ll see other changes in coming weeks, but for now, don’t forget to check the weather (tip: set your umbrella by the door for morning).
Homeless Haitians, post-earthquake, have set up tents on a golf course (photo: ©2010 Marco Dormino/UN)
Geneva, Switzerland (GenevaLunch) – The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in Geneva Tuesday 9 February made an urgent plea for another kind of aid for Haiti: weather services. The organization points out that “the rainy season with flood risk is due in early April and the hurricane season begins in early June. In order to prevent potential disasters related to natural hazards, which the country is prone to, the capacity of Haiti to produce and disseminate weather information and warnings needs to be developed without delay.”
More than 90 percent of the disasters in Haiti “are linked to frequently occurring meteorological, hydrological and climate-related hazards,” says the WMO.
The country’s meteorological services have operated only partially since the 12 January earthquake, so other WMO member countries have been providing weather information.
Getting out while there's time
Complete coverage of the WCC-3 by GenevaLunch
Conference is 31 August – 4 September 2009
Updated: Jimena video below / Geneva, Switzerland (GenevaLunch) – Hurricane Jimena is moving in on Cabo San Lucas, the Mexican resort town in southern Baja California, packing 195 km winds. Hotel guests are huddled in their boarded-up rooms.
Mexican authorities are polishing evacuation plans for people most at risk from flooding and storm surges.
Reducing disasters risk: debate at the World Climate Conference in Geneva
The incredibly detailed information at hand to track Jimena and other major weather events like it is the result of a complex interplay of sources of information from the most obvious, satellite images in almost real time, to a range of what climatologists call observations from the ground. The satellite data is collated with radar images, barometric information, wind speed and temperatures that are carefully collected and evaluated. For storms such as hurricane Jimena, the infrastructure is in place and the information is at hand. The first challenge to the scientists is to make the data available quickly and in a useful way to people at all levels, in order for them to be able to make meaningful decisions concerning safety and well-being.
The World Meteorological Organization in Geneva hosts the one and only “official” weather forecasting site for cities around the world, with data provided by members of the WMO: the world’s national weather services. The site is offered in several languages, with Italian added in the summer of 2009. By July 2009 the weather for 1,321 cities was available.
