The public spending deficit in Ireland could rise to 32 percent of GDP, if payments are made to three banks in a worst-case scenario, the Irish government announced 30 September. The total bill could rise to €50 billion. Ireland has already nationalized three main banks, and Anglo Irish Bank, the institution at the heart of Ireland’s massive decade-long property bubble, may need a total of €34bn alone. The government has already injected almost €23bn into Anglo Irish Bank.
Investors appeared relieved by the announcement, and Irish sovereign debt yields narrowed against German Bund yields. Irish public debt would rise to about 100 percent of GDP, compared to Greece’s 160 percent and Italy’s 118 percent.
Links to other sites: Bloomberg, CNN, Irish Independent
Update 26 August Zurich, Switzerland (GenevaLunch.com) - The Swiss franc rose to a new high as the euro slipped below CHF1.30 Wednesday 25 August. The Swiss National Bank decided earlier this year that it would no longer intervene to halt the rise of the franc after losing more than CHF14 billion from selling francs to slow down the currency’s appreciation. The euro has been under pressure with bond yields soaring in Greece and Irish debt being downgraded. The Swiss franc has been acting as a safe haven for investors worried about Europe and the fear of a double dip recession in the USA.
Yields on 10-year Swiss bonds fell to 1.02% as funds swept into Switzerland. The strong Swiss franc might be good news for those who earn Swiss salaries but it will make it harder for Swiss exporters to compete.
The Wall Street Journal notes in an article published Thursday that the man widely considered likely to become Switzerland’s next finance minister, Johann Schneider-Ammann, is strongly in favour of a weaker franc, and he backed the SNB’s intervention policy earlier this year. Schneider-Ammann is the head of Swissmem, the machinery industry’s association, and he has close ties to industry in general. The current finance minister, Hans-Rudolf Merz, retires in October. Both are centre-right politicians.
Ireland’s economy is now expected to grow by at least 1 percent this year, following the good news Wednesday 30 June that the country is moving out of recession: after eight quarters of negative GDP growth, the country saw growth of 2.7 percent in the first quarter. Over the past two years Ireland’s GDP has fallen by some 15 percent.
Ireland was the first economy in the eurozone to slip into recession and suffered eight consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. GNP negative growth was even worse, falling by over 17 percent.
The good news was accompanied by bad, however, with the unemployment rate in Ireland rising to 13.4 percent.
Links to other sites: CNN, Irish Times
Ireland is expelling an Israeli diplomat over the near-certain manufacture of eight fake Irish passports by an agency of the Israeli government, says Foreign Minister Micheal Martin, in a veiled reference to Massud, the Israeli secret service. The passports were used by agents who carried out the murder of Hamas leader Mahmoud al-Mabhouh in Dubai in 2009. Martin noted that the Irish government had come to “the inescapable conclusion that an Israeli government agency was responsible for the misuse and, most likely, the manufacture of the forged Irish passports associated with the murder of Mr Mabhouh” following an investigation. It worked closely with the UK and Australia during the investigation. They, too, have expelled Israeli diplomats over the affair.
Links to other sites: BBC, Irish Times
The rate of unemployment in Ireland rose 13.7 percent in May, the highest on record, for a total of 447,100 people out of jobs. However, the 5,032 workers laid off by companies in Ireland in May was a 37 percent decline compared to a year earlier, and redundancies have fallen 20 percent in the five months through May compared to the same period a year earlier, implying that joblessness might be stabilizing. Political parties and unions wrangled over the figures 2 June, with unions saying the figure is far higher and emigration explains why the figure is not growing more rapidly.
Links to other sites: Irish Times, RTE
Geneva, Switzerland (GenevaLunch) - Flights from Switzerland to western and northern parts of the UK, as well as Dublin in Ireland, risk being delayed or canceled, with many of the airports closed due to a volcanic ash cloud. Easyjet’s 21:50 flight to Liverpool Sunday night was canceled. London’s airports remain open for the time being, but are under threat as the cloud moves south late Sunday. Dublin airport closed early in the evening and will remain shut until at least noon Monday 17 May.
Geneva Airport recommends checking directly with the airlines for latest information.
The charts issued by the UK Met office show that the cloud is predicted to move towards the continent during the morning – but not at levels that would disrupt air travel.
Links to other sites: BBC, Irish Times, Met UK
The European economy will grow by 1 percent in 2010 and the 16–country Eurozone economy by 0.9 percent, according to new forecasts released by the European Commission Wednesday 5 May. The figures are higher than previous forecasts and show that Europe is recovering, Olli Rehn, finance commissioner told a press conference in Brussels. Rehn, in addressing problems of individual European countries, said that Britain’s new government must focus on reducing its high budget deficit and the national debt. He encouraged Ireland to increase its austerity measures, while nevertheless agreeing with Irish Finance Minister Brian Lenihan that Ireland’s economy is over the worst.
Links to other sites: Business Week, Irish Times, Xinhua
Update 16:05 Airports in northern England appear to be spared for the time being, but the situation is changing hourly, reports the BBC, which says UK weather and ash watch authorities expect the cloud to move north during the evening. The airspace over Ireland, Northern Ireland and Scotland was progressively closed Wednesday 5 May due to a new risk from Icelandic volcanic ash, with airports to the north closing at 07:00 this morning and the closings occurring further south later in the day, reports the Irish Times. Shannon, which is a main base for transatlantic flights, will be one of the last to close, at 17:30.
Airports in Ireland, Northern Ireland and parts of Scotland will re-open at 13:00 Tuesday morning 4 May after they were forced to close for the morning by threats from a new volcanic ash cloud. Other countries throughout Europe are watching carefully as the Volcanic Ash Advice Centre in London tracks the new threat to the airline industry. Ireland estimates it lost about €50 million in normal tourist revenue when its airspace was closed in April.
Links to other sites: Irish Times, Sky News
Surgeons at Great Ormond Street Hospital in London have nearly completed a marathon 20-hour surgery to separate Hassan and Hussein Benhaffaf of East Cork, Ireland, born in December as conjoined twins. Their parents were told before the birth the two boys might share a heart, but they do not in fact share any major organs.
Links to other sites: Belfast Telegraph, Reuters video
The Irish government Tuesday 30 March announced a series of measures to prop up its ailing banks, which have not yet come out of the global financial crisis. AIB shares were down 20 percent and Bank of Ireland shares fell by 10 percent. The popularly dubbed government “Bad bank” took over €81 billion in bad housing loans Tuesday, about one-fifth of Ireland’s bank loans, while political debates centred on the growing nationalization of the banks.
Links to other sites: Financial Times, Irish Times
The Irish have made a sharp u-turn in attitudes towards drinking in driving in the past 10 years. The Road Safety Authoritiy (RSA) in its annual run-up to St Patrick’s day festivities in Ireland carried out a survey that shows 65 percent of those polled now believe “that there is simply no amount of alcohol that you can drink if driving,” according to the RSA survey results published 16 March. The results compare to 2000, when 30 percent of people said there should be a zero limit and 2006, when the number had risen to 49 percent.
Lower Irish road death numbers linked to government road safety campaigns and legal restrictions on drink/driving are credited with the change. The government is proposing to lower the limit from the current 0.8 per thousand to 0.5 (Ed. note: Switzerland has a limit of 0.5).
Gay Byrne, Irish TV personality who chairs the RSA, said that “The results are astonishing and show that there has been a profound change in people’s attitudes and behaviour over the past decade. A clear majority of people now believe that drink driving is not normal behaviour, which is the polar opposite of the attitudes that were prevalent in Irish society 10 years ago.”
Lyons, France / Geneva, Switzerland (GenevaLunch) – Dubai police have added 16 more international arrest warrants to the 11 already issued, linked to the 20 January death of Hamas military leader Mahmoud Al Mabhouh. Interpol has added the new warrants to its existing Red Notices for the case. Interpol, based in Lyons, insists on the likely use of identity theft by the murderers. “Since Intepol has reason to believe that the suspects linked to this murder have stolen the identities of real people, the Red Notices specify that the names used were aliases used to commit murder,” its web site notes. “Interpol has officially made public the photos and the names fraudulently used on the passports in order to limit the ability of accused murderers from traveling freely using the same false passports.”
The international criminal police organization says it contacted the Geneva-based World Economic Forum in January to alert it to the increased risk of terrorists traveling on documents using stolen identities, which makes it easier for them to avoid detection.
Gardaí in Ireland have arrested seven people, originally from Morocco and Yemen, but all legal residents in Ireland, for plotting a murder abroad. Irish media are identifying the target abroad as Swedish cartoonist Lars Vilks, who drew a cartoon of Mohammed that outraged Islamists when it appeared in the Danish press. Three women and four men were arrested in Cork and Waterford. Police say they were working with police services and intelligence groups in other countries.
Links to other sites: CNN, Irish Times
British civil servants are striking for a second day, Tuesday 9 March, over cuts in redundancy pay, while Portugal’s government has announced austerity measures that could match those of Greece. In other world financial news, Aer Lingus announced losses for 2009 of €81 million that are four times the loss in 2008, just three days after cabin crrew rejected a negotiated €97 million plan to cut costs.
Link to other sites: Irish Times, RTE, Ireland, Deutsche-Welle
Reuters news video
Twickenham, London (GenevaLunch) – France dominated the first half of their game in Cardiff to take a 0-20 lead at half time. Wales responded with another spirited recovery but it was not enough and France ended with a 20-26 win. The French have now won their first three games: they face Italy and England for their final games.
Italy scored a rare Six Nations win when they beat Scotland 16-12.
Paris, France (GenevaLunch) - France sent out a message that their team is in fine form, and must now be favourites to win the Six Nations tournament and very likely take the Grand Slam as well. They powered past current champions Ireland with an impressive 33-10 victory. The Irish kept pace with the French for the first 20 minutes but then conceded 10 quick points when down to 14 men after a yellow card for Healy. Once France was on top they never looked back and dominated the game with a disciplined display of forward power backed up by incisive attacks.
Scotland dominated Wales for most of the match in Cardiff but then fell apart due to a combination of injuries, lack of discipline and Welsh passion. They ended the match with only 13 players, having transformed a 24-14 lead with three minutes left of normal time into a 31-24 win for the Welsh.
England play Italy in the Sunday game.
Links to other sites: Six Nations, South Wales Argus
Twickenham, London, England (GenevaLunch) - England celebrated the centenary of the famed Twickenham ground with the same result as in the first match: a victory over Wales. The single player most responsible for the result was the Welsh second row forward Alun Wyn Jones who was given a yellow card for tripping the English hooker Dylan Hartley. While he was off the field for 10 minutes England scored 17 points.
England dominated possession in the first half, taking advantage of the vulnerable Welsh line-out, but were held to 3-3 until the 35th minute. Wales fought hard to come back from the 20-3 deficit and threatened to take the lead after a fine try by James Hook.
Two boys, Hassan and Hussein Benhaffaf, who were born conjoined, left the hospital in Cork, Ireland, to go home to their family, parents Angie and Azzedine and their two older children. The seven-week-old boys, who are joined at the chest, but who do not share any vital organs, are in good health. They will travel to London’s Great Ormond Street Hospital to be surgically separated in a few months, reports the Irish Times, which carries a photo released by the family.
Update 19:04 Ireland’s air traffic controllers are taking industrial action Wednesday 20 January, which will result in about 100 flights being cancelled in and out of Cork, Shannon and Dublin airports. Their union is backing 14controllers who were fired suspended Tuesday for refusing to cooperate with their employer, the Irish Aviation Authority, over using new technology, according to the Irish Times.
Paris airports cancelled about 15 percent of their flights 13-15 January, reports the Canadian Press news agency, when French air traffic controllers went on strike over pay and the possibility their civil servant status will change.
Zurich, Switzerland (GenevaLunch) – The world football federation’s (Fifa) disciplinary committee is holding a hearing Monday 18 January to consider Thierry Henry ‘s famous handball that gave France rather than Ireland a place in the World Cup. The executive committee of Fifa in December asked the disciplinary body to review the incident that caused an uproar and prompted the Football Association of Ireland to demand a replay or even to consider adding Ireland as a 33rd team.
Tax revenues were down by €7.7 billion, or 19 percent, in Ireland for 2009, Department of Finance figures published Tuesday 5 January show. The drop in revenue combined with a €4b government bailout of Anglo Irish Bank pushed the national debit €11.9 billion higher.
Ireland’s high debt and the problems of Iceland, still trying to recover from the collapse of its economy a year ago, are likely to add to Eurozone woes in 2010, argues Ralph Atkins in the Financial Times.
Links to other sites: Financial Times, Irish Times
The Greek government Tuesday added new economic problems to the social ones it has faced since rioting over the 6-7 December weekend. Major financial ratings groups downgraded the country’s economy, with Fitch putting it at “negative”, raising concerns about possible insolvency. Over the weekend riot forces confronted large crowds who marched in commemoration of a 15-year-old student killed in December 2008 by police. Ireland faces nervous citizens and investors today with the publication of its new budget, expected to show massive cuts of €4 billion in social services and other sensitive areas.
Links to other sites: DigitalLook/Yahoo, Irish Times, RTE, Ireland, Sydney Morning Herald, Australia
Update 21:15 Zurich, Switzerland (GenevaLunch) - The world football federation Wednesday 2 December approved the Final Draw procedure, publishing the “pots” of teams. The draw takes place in South Africa Friday 4 and will determine who plays whom, when.
The Irish will not play in South Africa in the 2010 World Cup: that is the final answer to their request to Fifa, the world football federation, to reconsider. Ireland lost to France in a headline-making qualifying game after French player Thierry Henry’s illegal handball move that was not spotted by game officials. The Irish had asked to be an extra team for the World Cup but Monday Fifa said no.
CNN points out that France, unseeded, would have been seeded had November rankings been used instead of October’s.
The pots for Friday’s draw:
Croke Park, Dublin, Ireland (GenevaLunch) - The Irish rugby team put on a brave display to beat the South African Springboks, the current world champions, in a tight game which was played in a Dublin fog in front of almost 75,000 fans. The win meant that the Irish have now gone 11 games without defeat. The points were scored by Jonathan Sexton but the victory owed as much to the ferocious tackling of Brian O’Driscoll.
In the other Internationals the New Zealand All Blacks crushed France 12-39 and Australia beat Wales 12-33.
Links to other sites: Irish Times, Telegraph, UK
It’s been a rough end to the week in Ireland, which first lost its World Cup qualifying match to the French under questionable circumstances Wednesday 18 November, and then heavy rains set in. The country, like Britain, has massive flooding in many parts of the country: Galway was virtually cut off for much of Friday, access roads and the city centred in Ennis, County Clare were closed, Thomastown and Kilkenny in the south were badly hit by rivers that broke their banks, and parts of Cork were at one point under a metre of water. Clean-up costs are being estimated at tens of millions of euros in what one official says is the worst flooding the country has seen in 30 years.
Links to other sites: Irish Times, RTE
(parody video) Nyon, Switzerland (GenevaLunch) - Uefa confirmed in a press conference that there have been a number of arrests by German police in an investigation into a massive match fixing scandal involving about 200 matches. Media reports say there have also been two arrests in Switzerland, unconfirmed by Uefa. There have been more than 50 police raids in Germany, Switzerland, Austria and Britain. The investigations were triggered by suspicions of rigged betting, especially in the German, Turkish, Belgian, Croatian, Austrian, Slovenian, Hungarian and Bosnian leagues, in the qualifying rounds of the Champions League and Europa League.
Zurich, Switzerland (GenevaLunch) – International football federation Fifa has dashed Irish hopes for a 2010 World Cup qualifying re-match, saying in a brief statement that it had replied to a request for a re-match from the Football Association of Ireland: “In the reply, Fifa states that the result of the match cannot be changed and the match cannot be replayed. As is clearly mentioned in the Laws of the Game, during matches, decisions are taken by the referee and these decisions are final.”
Ireland put in the request after France won Wednesday 2-1 in extra-time when France captain Thierry Henry used his hand to stop the ball from going out of play.
Paris, France (GenevaLunch) - Thierry Henry handed France their ticket to the 2010 World Cup, literally, as he controlled the ball with his hand before passing it to William Gallas to score the equalizing goal against Ireland in their play-off match. Somehow the referee and linesman failed to see the fault, which was clearly deliberate. Ireland dominated the match in the first half and took the lead with a goal by Robbie Keane and could have easily gone further ahead before they were hit by the French version of the “hand of God.”
In the other games Algeria qualified at the expense of Egypt, Greece beat Ukraine and Portugal won both games against Bosnia-Herzegovenia. The surprise of the evening was Russia being eliminated by Slovenia.
Links to other sites: Fifa, Guardian, Irish Times
Zurich, Switzerland (GenevaLunch) – International football federation Fifa says it will continue to offer second sales phase tickets online for the World Cup 2010 matches until midnight South Africa time (01:00 Swiss time) Friday 20 November, on a first come first served basis. The extension has been made in part to accommodate excited fans after Wednesday’s qualifying matches, with European teams Ireland versus France in Saint Denis, France.
The third and main phase for ticket sales online opens 6 December, the day after the final draw.
