GENEVA, SWITZERLAND – A quick fix for joblessness worldwide, but particularly in Europe, is not at hand, says the International Labour Organization (ILO). The Geneva-based UN body gives a gloomy prognosis in its new “World of Work 2012″ report, issued Monday 30 April. It argues that the time has come to “move towards a growth- and job-orientated strategy”, particularly in Europe, where austerity programmes are taking too great a toll.
“This is not a normal employment slowdown. Four years into the global crisis, labour market imbalances are becoming more structural, and therefore more difficult to eradicate. Certain groups, such as the long-term unemployed, are at risk of exclusion from the labour market. This means that they would be unable to obtain new employment even if there were a strong recovery.
“In addition, for a growing proportion of workers who do have a job, employment has become more unstable or precarious. In advanced economies, involuntary part-time employment and temporary employment have increased in two-thirds and more than half of these economies, respectively. The share of informal employment remains high, standing at more than 40 per cent in two-thirds of emerging and developing countries for which data are available. Women and youth are disproportionately affected by unemployment and job precariousness. In particular, youth unemployment rates have increased in about 80 per cent of advanced economies and in two-thirds of developing economies.”
The report notes that there is still a deficit of 50 million jobs worldwide, compared to the number of jobs pre-crisis, in 2008. And with no new jobs in sight for the 80 million new workers entering the market in the next two years, the problem is likely to worsen. It says that a social unrest index created for the report is rising, compared to 2010, as people become more concerned “about the lack of decent jobs”.
Unemployment is up in nearly two-thirds of European countries since 2010 and jobs recovery “has stalled” in Japan and the United States.
“Elsewhere, employment gains have weakened in terms of the needs of a growing, better educated working-age population, as in China. And jobs deficits remain acute in much of the Arab region and Africa.”
A significant part of the problem in Europe is the austerity programmes, it argues: “the policy strategy has shifted its focus away from job creation and improvement and concentrated instead on cutting fiscal deficits at all costs.”
The overall negative outlook of the report is offset by some encouraging words: developing economies’ have in some cases benefited and jobs provided thanks to their policies of boosting domestic consumption. The ILO report offers a number of solutions it argues will work, to improve the overall employment picture:
- labour market institutions should be strengthened so that wages grow in line with productivity, starting in surplus economies. In the current situation, consideration could be given to a careful and coordinated increase in the minimum wage
- it is critical to restore credit conditions and create a more favourable business environment for small enterprises. The issue is particularly pressing in the Euro-zone countries, where the policy of the Central Bank to provide liquidity to banks has failed to boost credit to the real economy. There may also be a case for higher taxation of firms that do not reinvest profits, and/or lower taxation of firms that emphasize investment and job creation.
- In the case of emerging and developing countries, efforts should be centred on public investment and social protection to reduce poverty and income inequality and to stimulate aggregate demand. For advanced economies, the focus should be on ensuring that unemployed people, especially youth, receive adequate support to find new jobs.
World of Work Report available in full or summary
World of Work 2012 web site
Video interview with the authors, from the ILO
GENEVA, SWITZERLAND – Tuesday 27 December was the last day that descendents of those who fled Franco’s Spain and the 1936-39 civil war could claim Spanish passports, and in Latin America in particular, the lines were long. Some 66,000 Cubans have already received Spanish passports and another 180,000 may have qualified.
Links to other sites: BBC, Latin America Herald Tribune
Inter-Europe air traffic remains weak
Worldwide improvement is concentrated in Asia, Latin America
Brands, not flags, must guide the industry to profitability, says Iata head
Geneva, Switzerland (GenevaLunch) – The airline industry is expected to have an overall loss of $9.4 billion for 2009, according to Iata, the Geneva-based air transport industry organization, which released new figures Thursday 11 March. The loss is lower than Iata’s December projected figure of $11b. “More significantly, we now forecast smaller losses in 2010 of $2.8b, compared to our previous forecast of $5.6b.”
The improvement is due to year-end growth in traffic that carried on into January, but it was much led by Asia and Latin America, with the US and Europe far more sluggish.
Growth in passenger demand, world airlines 2006-2009 (Iata)
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“We can be optimistic but with due caution,” Giovanni Bisignani, CEO and director-general says. “Important risks remain. Oil is a wild-card, over-capacity is still a danger, and costs must be kept under control – throughout the value chain and with labour.”
Asian and Latin American carriers posted international passenger demand gains of 6.5 percent and 11.0 percent respectively in January. North America and Europe lagged, with international passenger demand gains of 2.1 and 3.1 percent.
Update 16 December Geneva, Switzerland (GenevaLunch) – Bananas have come close to being the fruit that broke the Doha Round’s back, but they could in the end save the talks, says the International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development (ICTSD). The European Union (EU) and Latin American exporters initialed an agreement Tuesday 15 December at the World Trade Organization (WTO) in Geneva. It will settle their dispute over the banana trade and tariffs, which has been running for more than 10 years.
“An agreement on bananas is widely viewed as a critical condition for a conclusion to the stalled WTO Doha Round of trade negotiations,” says the Geneva-based ICTSD. The organization provides the international trade system with input on sustainable development aspects of trade.
A study published Tuesday by the ICTSD shows that “a new deal on European Union banana import tariffs will be a boon to Latin American exporters but would trigger a drop in exports of the fruit from African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) countries. But the blow to ACP banana exporters may be cushioned by the aid money that the EU has promised in conjunction with the deal.”
Global wealth has declined 11.7 percent from $104.7 trillion to $92.4 trillion, the first decline since 2001, as measured by financial institutions’ holdings of assets for their clients (assets under management, or AuM). The figures are published in a Boston Consulting Group (BCG) report out 15 September. BCG sees the value of assets beginning to recover in 2010, but sas they will take three years to reach their 2007 levels.
The global economic downturn in 2008 hit equity holdings particularly hard, especially in North America, where AuM plummeted 21.8 percent to $29.3 trillion. Only 38 percent of assets are held in equities, down from 50 percent before the crisis. The number of millionaires in North America dropped 22 percent to 3.9 million, still the world’s biggest millionaire population. Europe’s assets declined only 5.8 percent and stood at $32.7t, slightly ahead of North America in AuM. Wealth in Latin America increased 3 percent over the period, the only region that registered growth.
Households with assets of less than $100,000 grew by 2 percent during the period, but all other groups’ assets declined.
Geneva, Switzerland (GenevaLunch) – Chagas disease is one of the largest debilitating and killer diseases in Latin America, but it is not winning the battle it needs for public attention in order to reduce the number of its victims. It is considered a neglected tropical disease by the WHO (World Health Organization), which put it on the agenda for the May 2009 World Health Assembly, in part because it appears to be traveling, thanks to eco-tourism. It was bumped when the agenda was reduced to allow the meeting to focus on the new pandemic, A/H1N1.
Chagas disease appears to be spreading from isolated rural areas to urban areas as people move to cities, but there is little prevention for the insect-borne disease, no standardized diagnostic test and huge knowledge gaps remain about effective treatment.
Bolivia’s opposition has agreed to join talks starting Thursday to resolve the very tense situation in the country. The dispute is between the government of Evo Morales, the first majority-group Indian leader, and largely white governments in the east. One of the governors was arrested earlier this week, sparking more violence. Fear of the problems spreading led to Latin American leaders holding emergency talks this week. CNN
